Ukraine–Iran Conflicts Put Global Food Security Under Strain; Jaishankar Warns of Major Crisis Ahead
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar has warned that the continuing Ukraine and Iran-Gulf conflicts could trigger a major global food crisis in the coming months as disruptions to grain shipments, fertiliser supplies and energy markets create a wider economic shock for developing countries.
Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York, Jaishankar highlighted the growing pressure on the global supply chain, particularly the movement of agricultural commodities through critical corridors. He pointed to difficulties facing major grain exporters in shipping supplies through the Black Sea, raising concerns over food availability and price stability.
The pressure is not limited to grains. Jaishankar said fertiliser shortages are emerging as another critical vulnerability because several major producers are located in Russia and West Asia regions directly affected by geopolitical disruptions. Any prolonged shortage of fertilisers could increase agricultural input costs and eventually affect food production.
The minister also linked the food challenge to a broader “4F” pressure — food, fuel, fertiliser and finance. Tight energy markets, higher supply risks and capital moving towards safer markets during conflicts could place additional stress on Global South economies.
The warning comes as Black Sea disruptions are already affecting grain flows. Recent reporting has pointed to significant declines in Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, increasing concerns about global food inflation and alternative supply routes.
Jaishankar also called for greater sensitivity in international policymaking arguing that major economies should consider the spillover effects of their decisions on vulnerable countries.
The governance challenge is increasingly interconnected: energy security, agricultural production, trade routes and financial stability are no longer separate risks. For developing economies, simultaneous pressure across these areas could narrow policy space and increase the cost of maintaining food and economic stability.
